October, 2008
The Future of U.S.-Russian Relations
Ryan Collipi
The Russian-Georgian war is a blip on the foreign policy to most Americans, but will pose a lasting challenge to US-Russian relations. As such, the means with which each presidential candidate proposes to handle the situation will shape our foreign policy and our relationship with the nation of Russia for years to come.
The Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia recently chose to break away from Georgia, seeking the protection of Russia to the north. When the Russian army entered South Ossetia, they were engaged by the Georgians, setting off the war.The Russians quickly invaded the Georgian homeland, claiming justification and pushing into the most populous areas of the nation.
Georgia, outmanned and outgunned by the Russian army, looked to the United States for help, which immediately declared its solidarity with the Georgian government. However, no real action was taken beyond condemnation of the Russian invasion. The Bush administration possesses little capacity to effect a new foreign policy regarding Russia’s aggressive behavior, leaving the future president to determine the course of US-Russian relations.
Both John McCain and Barack Obama support the Georgian government. Both stress the need for US solidarity with Georgia, and both hold Russia responsible for its attack on Georgian soil. However each has a different view of military solutions. John McCain, realizing the inherent risk of Russian imperialism, supports the use of military force if absolutely necessary. It has been suggested that McCain would lead the United States into another Cold War, but McCain rebuffed these statements, claiming that "the lesson here is that we are seeing and we’ve seen a number of other indications of it, a reemergence of Russia as a major player particularly in the region. I don’t think it means we’re gonna reignite the Cold War, and I don’t think that we’re gonna have kind of situation but I do believe that we need to stand as courageously as we can on behalf of this little country." McCain added that "the events of the last few days show that there are many places in the world where we don’t necessarily anticipate this kind of conflict breaking out and it does require a steady hand on the tiller and an experienced one."
Barack Obama has taken a different stance on the issue. Seeing diplomacy as the primary means of international relations, he has all but removed the military option from the table, arguing that "Russia must back up its commitment to stop its violence and violation of Georgia’s sovereignty with actions - not just words. The United States should now join our European partners in direct, high-level diplomacy with both Georgia and Russia to seek immediate implementation of a cease-fire, and to achieve a lasting resolution to this crisis." Attacking McCain’s statements about the situation, he warned the nation "to avoid an escalation to full scale war." Planning on initiating "direct talks" he plans on meetings through the UN Security Council in order to resolve the crisis. McCain, although not arguing for that specific solution, has left the door open for diplomacy. Neither he nor Obama advocate jumping into a war or initiating a second Cold War, but McCain refuses to attempt talks without the back-up of potential military action. Unlike Obama, he seems to realize the universal truth that most adversaries will not cooperate unless talks are backed by the promise of force. If Russia believes that nothing will be done if they continue in their present course, they may very well follow the road they have taken to its conclusion.